11-08 Reconsidering the Impact of Access to Transit on Local Land Markets
Reconsidering the Impact of Access to Transit on Local Land Markets
P.I. Name & Address
There are two primary goals of this research: first, to reconsider the metrics and tools used to assess the spillovers of transit investment into local land markets; and second, to use these results in order to obtain more accurate and robust estimates of these spillovers. Beyond direct impacts such as changes in mode share and congestion, transit investment may have myriad indirect impacts. For example, it is argued that by changing the accessibility of locations through transit investment, the economics of proximal land markets are changed. If true, this could result in the capitalization of improved access into local property values, in changes in land uses and land-use intensity, in changes in employment and population density, and in changes in the types of employment around stations. This research analyzes these variables in order to develop a more robust, accurate, and comprehensive assessment of the broader impacts of transit investment on land proximal to transit stations and lines.
Previous METRANS funded-research (METRANS Project 08-07 and the published version of it: Redfearn, 2009a), demonstrated that a set of "standard" tools for assessing capitalization of proximity to passenger rail stations are highly unstable in the presence of housing submarkets – a common feature of the urban areas served by mass transit. This research will expand and extend upon previous research 1) to include a much larger geographical area and to consider more and different instances of transit investment – moving from Los Angeles and two passenger rail lines to all California metropolitan areas and both rail and rapid bus lines; 2) to revisit the tools of assessment in light of the previous findings of parameter instability; 3) to use the results of this process to revisit capitalization for these larger samples, as well as other metrics of changes in proximal land markets such as firm births and deaths, changes in the types of employment, and employment density; and 4) to reconsider two types of policy in light of the findings. First, it would reconsider the evaluation of transit investment proposals and how indirect benefits and costs are forecast. Second, it may be that local land use policy prevents markets from responding to the changed accessibility and realizing potential benefits from transit investment. Both policy questions should be informed by this research.
(1) Collecting and accessing the data; map sample data and transit systems; provide descriptive analysis of the raw data, of the metropolitan areas, and of the areas around transit stations
(2) Model development, testing, estimation; update current best practices; establish base lines; estimate nonparametrics
(3) Interpretation of results, refinements, dissemination
(4) Draft and final project report
(1) August 2010 – September 2010
(2) September 2010 – December 2010
(3) January 2011 – June 2011
(4) July 2011
One student at 25% for 9 months
One student at 25% for 12 months
Technology Transfer Activities:
Project report will be posted soon
Potential Benefits of the Project:
Guidance for policies that promote development around transit stations, insight into argument that transit infrastructure increases surrounding land values
Economics, Planning and Forecasting, Policy, Public Transportation
1p.1 To reconsider the metrics and tools used to assess the spillovers of transit investment into local land markets, and to use these results in order to obtain more accurate and robust estimates of these spillovers.