Project Number:
08-10
Research Project:
Estimating Behavioral Changes for Transportation Modes After Terrorist Attacks in London, Madrid, and Tokyo
P.I. Name & Address:
Detlof von Winterfeldt
University of Southern California
Center for Risk and Economic Effects of Terrorism Events
Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902
Email: winterfe@usc.edu
Website: http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/faculty/detail.php?id=39
Phone: (213) 740-0898
Fax: (213) 821-3926
Co-P.I.:
Garrett R. Asay
University of Southern California
Center for Risk and Economic Effects of Terrorism Events
Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902
Email: garrett.asay@usc.edu
Website: http://www.garrett-asay.net/
Phone: (213) 821-3919
Fax: (213) 821-3926
Bumsoo Lee
University of Southern California
Center for Risk and Economic Effects of Terrorism Events
Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902
Email: bumsoole@usc.edu
Website: http://www.usc.edu/dept/create/create-team/bumsoo-lee.htm
Phone: (213) 821-3920
Fax: (213) 821-3926
Project Objective:
Our objective is to explore behavioral change in demand for public transit after three major international terrorism attacks on public transportation networks: the London bombings (July 7, 2005), the Madrid bombings (March 11, 2004), and the Sarin Gas Attacks in Tokyo (March 20, 1995). The findings of this study will significantly enhance current understanding of the links between risk perception and demand change responses to terrorism on transportation infrastructure. Better understanding of transportation mode choice behavior after terrorist attacks is essential to policy makers in evaluating the costs and benefits of new security measures.
Why do individuals change their behavior after terrorist attacks? To what extent do changes in risk perception explain changes in travel behavior? This study aims to answer these questions by examining the three largest attacks in recent history on public transit systems: the London bombings (July 7, 2005), the Madrid bombings (March 11, 2004), and the Sarin Gas Attacks in Tokyo (March 20, 1995). At present, little is known about how individuals change their transportation mode choice in response to terrorist attacks on land transit. This study intends to help fill this gap.
As a first cut, we will estimate aggregate demand shocks for public transit use after the attacks using standard econometric (time-series) methods. We will also identify substitution effects. This empirical analysis of transportation mode choice can capitalize on the different nature of risk between modes and provide insight into changes in risk perception.
Next, we plan to use two methods to disentangle the relationship between transportation mode choice and risk perception. First, we will translate the observed demand shocks into changes in individuals' risk perception for transit using mode choice models and simulations. In doing so, we will use transportation survey data from each country. Second, we will use a calibration technique with a representative agent. Calibration is commonly used in the macroeconomics and finance literature and involves fitting an assumed utility function to consumer expenditure data. The parameters of the utility function are computed and yield predictions of individuals' risk perception.
Task Descriptions:
Set up project & Hire RAs
(September – October)
Research design
(September – December)
Data collection & Preparation
(September – January)
Data analysis
-Aggregate travel demand by mode
-Risk aversion factor estimation
(December – June)
Reports, Conference presentations, & Publication
(May – August)
Milestones, Dates:
September 1, 2007 – August 31, 2008
Total Budget:
$90,000
Student Involvement:
One student at 25% for 9 months
Relationship to Other Research Projects:
Related to 07-17; part of the safety, security, and vulnerability focus area
Technology Transfer Activities:
Project report will be posted soon
Potential Benefits of the Project:
This research will provide greater understanding of the effects of terrorist attacks and the perceived risk of attacks on transportation mode choice.
TRB Keywords:
Public Transportation, Terrorism, Security, Tokyo, London, Madrid, Infrastructure, Travel Behavior
