Research

Project Number:
06-10

Research Project:
Sources of Electoral Support for Transportation Funding

P.I. Name & Address:
Jefferey Sellers
Department of Political Science
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA  90089-0044
Tel:  (213) 740-1684
Fax:  (213)740-8893
Email:  sellers@usc.edu

Project Objective:
Increasingly, states and localities have turned to electoral referenda as a means to raise funds for transportation infrastructure.  There has been little exploration of what this shift to voting as decisive element of the policymaking process means for the substance of policy.   Although referenda have usually succeeded, the process may contribute to under-funding of transportation infrastructure and maintenance.  The results can also conflict with the goals of balanced and equitable transportation infrastructure funding.   Forms of infrastructure that serve the needs of disadvantaged central city populations who comprise a minority of the electorate may be especially jeopardized. 

As yet, there is no systematic comparative study of the kinds of voters who support and oppose transportation funding.  Drawing on a study of infrastructure referenda and patterns of voting for and against them, this research will analyze patterns of electoral support for ballot measures to fund transportation across the country.  The analysis will focus on the social and spatial constituencies within the metropolitan areas where the overwhelming proportion of citizens live.  The resulting report will specify what types of electoral coalitions have been formed in opposition to and support of various ballot measures for transportation funding.  Particular attention will be given to the sources of variation for those types of voters and communities have varied in their support. 

Several types of influences will be scrutinized for their influence on referendum voting:  (a) Social and economic characteristics of voters (including ethnicity/race, occupation, income and age), (b) Relations of voters to infrastructure (commuting, growth rates, proximity to different types of transportation), (c) Community characteristics   (economic diversity, homeownership, political participation), (d) Regional and state-level characteristics (state and metropolitan political cultures, institutional frameworks, and economies) and (e)  the framing of the referendum (types of transportation, forms of taxes or bonds, single or multi-purpose, type of majority required, characteristics of campaigns). The study will compare these patterns in a selection of metropolitan areas that include Los Angeles, New York, Detroit, Cincinnati and Seattle.

After an initial stage of data-gathering on referenda, the research will center around an ecological analysis of voting patterns for referenda from 1995 and 2005 in three metropolitan areas:  Los Angeles (the five-county region), Cincinnati in Ohio, Detroit in Michigan and Seattle in Washington state.  The analysis will draw on extensive local demographic and electoral data that has already been assembled by town for these metropolitan areas as part of the International Metropolitan Observatory study of the Political Ecology of the Metropolis.  The referenda to be analyzed include state-level measures in all three states, as well as county and municipal measures.

Task Descriptions:
1. Collection of data on referendum results from local election statistics offices; literature review of relevant literature on referenda and transportation policy       
2. Entry of data on ferendum results into IMO dataset; case study research on background and context of referenda; preparation of demographic, spatial and other variables for analysis of referendum data 
3. Analysis of data (correlations, mapping, multivariate regressions)
4. Finalization of simple regression models; multilevel regression analysis; draft version of statistical results          
5. Refinements of multilevel models; completion of report on results; preparation of article manuscript from report, to be submitted for publication

Milestones, Dates:
April 1, 2006 - March 31, 2006

Total Budget:
$34,395

Student Involvement:
One Student, 160 hours @ $14.00/hr.
One Student, 160 hours @ $10.00/hr.
One Student, 160 hours @ $10.00/hr.

Relationship to Other Research Projects:
Part of urban mobility, infrastructure focus area

Technology Transfer Activities:
Project report posted on the website

Potential Benefits of the Project:
Public support for transportation funding measures

TRB Keywords:
Transportation funding, funding referenda

Primary Subject:
4b.4 Transportation planning, economics, and institutional issues

Goals:
4c.2 Mobility

Enabling Research:
4c.11 Tools for modeling and design

Modal Orientation:
Multimodal - transit, highway